Blue dashed — Gate (63d) Above 0% = CPI still elevated → Q4 blocked. Below 0% = gate clear.
Regime = where the two solid lines sit vs zero. Both above → Q2. Green above, amber below → Q1. Both below (gate clear) → Q4. Green below, amber above → Q3.
15-Year Accuracy by Quadrant · Jan 2010–Apr 2026 · 3-day confirmation · Q4 inflation gate · Hybrid DBC/DBA proxy
Configuration Comparison · Hit Rate vs False Signal Rate
Methodology
68 ETFs · Jan 2010–Apr 2026 · 4,082 trading days (~16 years) · 263 confirmed regime changes · 3-day confirmation filter (13–20% false signal rate vs 38% in 5yr test) · Hybrid inflation proxy: DBC→DBA when energy premium >6pp (geopolitical filter) · Q4 gate: requires 63d commodity momentum negative · Captures: taper tantrum, COVID, rate-hike cycle, QE era · Q4 hit rate 50% over 15yr (bonds worked pre-2021)
📚 Quick Start — Three Things to Check Every Morning
1 Current Regime
Check the large coloured card top-left. It tells you which of the four macro environments we are in right now and how long it has been active.
2 Confirmation Status
Check the status panel top-right. If it says CONFIRMED the regime is actionable. If PENDING wait one more day before acting.
3 ETF Recommendations
Scroll to the ETF tiles. Green tiles are long recommendations. Red-bordered tiles are short candidates that historically underperform in this regime.
Reading the Four Regimes
Q1
Goldilocks — Economy growing, inflation falling. Best for tech and growth stocks. SPY trending up, commodities flat or falling.
Q2
Overheating — Economy growing but inflation rising. Favour commodities, energy, cyclicals. Avoid long bonds.
Q3
Stagflation — Economy slowing, inflation stays high. Gold and energy hold value. Most equities and bonds struggle.
Q4
Deflation — Economy slowing, inflation falling. Defensives and medium bonds outperform. Only activates when the inflation gate clears.
Reading the Three Gauges
G
Growth gauge — SPY 20-day return. Bar right of centre = growth rising, favour equities. Bar left = growth falling, reduce risk.
I
Inflation gauge — Commodity basket 20-day return. Bar right = inflation rising, favour commodities. Bar left = inflation falling, favour bonds and tech.
G
Gate gauge — 63-day commodity momentum. HIGH = Q4 blocked even if signals say deflation. LOW = Q4 can activate.
When a Regime Changes
1
Wait for confirmation. A new regime must hold for 3 consecutive days before marked CONFIRMED. Do not act on the first day of a potential change.
2
Check the transition panel. The probabilities panel shows how likely a shift to each quadrant is, based on 15 years of history.
3
Rotate gradually. ETF tiles update automatically. Use the 20d and 5d return figures to assess momentum before entering a position.
4
Subscribe to alerts. Enter your email at the bottom of the Live Regime tab. You will be notified on every confirmed change — roughly 16 per year.
Using History & Backtest Tabs
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History tab — SPY price overlaid with colour-coded regime bands. Toggle 3M / 6M / 1Y. The signal chart below shows what drove each regime change.
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Backtest Stats tab — 15-year hit rate per quadrant. Q2 has the highest avg forward return (+1.46%). Q1 has the lowest false signal rate (13%).
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Track record — Bottom of Live Regime tab shows the last 5 trading days with regime, SPY daily return, and all three signal readings.
Important Limitations
Signal tool, not a trading system. The regime identifies the macro environment and historically outperforming asset classes. It does not dictate position sizing, entry timing, or risk management.
Hit rates are not guarantees. A 62% hit rate means outperformance in 62 of 100 signals over 15 years. The other 38% it did not. Always use stop-losses and size positions accordingly.
Data updates once per day. Signals are calculated after market close using end-of-day prices. Not suitable for intraday decisions.
Crypto is satellite only. IBIT is listed as opportunistic in Q1 and Q3 with high average returns but very high standard deviation. Only use with a small allocation you can afford to lose.
⚠️ DISCLAIMER — NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
This dashboard is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services. Past regime accuracy does not guarantee future results. All backtested results are hypothetical and do not reflect actual trading or the impact of transaction costs, taxes, or fees. You must conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The authors accept no liability for investment decisions made using this tool.