Get notified when a confirmed regime change is detected (~40 alerts/year).
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68 ETFs · Jan 2010–Apr 2026 · 4,082 trading days (~16 years) · 263 confirmed regime changes · 3-day confirmation filter (13–20% false signal rate vs 38% in 5yr test) · Hybrid inflation proxy: DBC→DBA when energy premium >6pp (geopolitical filter) · Q4 gate: requires 63d commodity momentum negative · Captures: taper tantrum, COVID, rate-hike cycle, QE era · Q4 hit rate 50% over 15yr (bonds worked pre-2021)
Q: Why does the Inflation Gate show positive but the pill says "HIGH"?
The gate is a permission switch, not a trigger. When positive (>0%), it means CPI is still elevated — this blocks Q4 Deflation from activating even if Growth and Inflation signals are both negative. The system holds the previous regime instead. When the gate turns negative, Q4 is permitted (if signals justify it).
Q: What do the transition probabilities mean?
These show the likelihood of being in each regime over the next 20 trading days, based on 16 years of historical transitions. The current regime is highlighted. High probability in another quadrant suggests a potential shift.
Q: When should I act on a regime change?
Only after 3-day confirmation. Raw signals can flip daily due to noise. The 3-day filter reduces false signals from 38% to 13%. Wait for the "CONFIRMED" pill before adjusting positions.
Q: Why aren't IBIT (Bitcoin ETF) recommendations in the main baskets?
IBIT is listed as opportunistic/satellite only in the crypto note. It shows positive average returns in Q1 (+7.2%) and Q3 (+6.4%), but with high volatility (12.5% std dev). Not recommended in Q2 or Q4. Use as a small position if you have high risk tolerance.